Anyone who has been following the redistricting process knows Republicans were originally supposed to gerrymander their way into the House majority . However, a string of court rulings against Republican maps and aggressive gerrymandering from Democrats has virtually made this year’s redistricting a likely wash. This doesn’t mean all hope is lost for Republicans. Far from it! Midterms typically bode well for the party out of power and Biden’s incredibly low approval rating makes it even more likely that Republicans will likely take back at least one chamber of congress even if it isn’t by a 2010 landslide. As it stands, Republicans hold 212 House seats to the Democrats’ 222 which means Republicans only need to pick up 6 seats to retake the majority. And since the end of WW2, the president’s party has lost an average of 26 House seats in their midterm elections. According to the analysis at 538, the president’s party usually does about 7.4% worse in the midterm than they do during the presidential election which means Republicans likely have a floor of winning the generic ballot vote by about 4.4%. This could obviously be higher. If last year’s elections are any indicator, Republicans could see a swing in their direction anywhere from 5%-15%. There was even one state senate race in Connecticut where a seat swung 25% towards the Republican since the 2020 general election. All of this to say, while redistricting may have been rough for Republicans this cycle, the general mood of the country should more than offset this. And there are things the Republican Party and Republican voters can do to maximize our gains even with a less than favorable map.
As it stands there are 157 Democrat leaning districts and 138 Republican leaning districts with 23 highly competitive districts according to 538’s redistricting tracker. There are still 12 states who have either not completed their district drawing or are currently being sued for their approved map. If we assume that the 10 states where Republicans control at least one branch of government keep the same congressional district breakdown as their old maps, then there are 205 seats that lean towards Republicans. This is not a guarantee that Republicans take all of these, but given the environment, it is likely that Republicans take almost all of these leaning seats. If we take those same 10 states and add the two Democratic trifecta states in the mix, then Democrats are likely to be sitting at 197 leaning seats. This leaves us with 33 highly competitive seats which means the partisan lean of the seat is within 5% of being evenly split. In a very Republican year, one would expect Republicans to pick up the majority of these competitive seats and even a few of the Democrat leaning seats, but there is a way Republicans can make this easier on themselves. In this environment, a D+10 district is competitive. It is certainly not easy to win, but it is naturally competitive, so a good way for Republicans to ensure more seats is nominating good candidates as opposed to candidates of whom they may feel most closely aligned. Certainly a wave election year allows even the most right-wing candidates to become competitive in Democratic leaning districts, but there are always votes to be gotten if Republicans run candidates more towards the center.
The Republican Party cannot actually hope to put forth policy without the presidency, so the primary thought on the minds of Republican voters should be to oppose the leftward lurch of the Biden administration. However, this can only be done effectively if Republicans control at least one chamber of congress. The preferable chamber would be the Senate because then McConnell can prevent Biden from nominating court justices, but the House can prevent crazy legislation like BBB from ever seeing the light of day. This means that the first thought on the minds of Republican primary voters should be to nominate Republicans who they think can win. It does not so much matter your ideological preferences when your primary goal is to simply stop the Biden administration. You do not need firebrands like Marjorie Taylor Greene or Madison Cawthorn who act like they’re fighting when in reality they aren’t doing anything really at all because they don’t actually have any power over legislation. These people are really active on Twitter, but they hurt Republicans in swing districts. Marjorie Taylor Greene is also just a kook who should never have been elected to congress in the first place, but that is a discussion for a future article. My point is, these people make the hyper-partisans happy with their outrageous statements, but they are not the people who win in swing districts which means nominating them hurts Republican chances of picking up the House thus preventing us from stopping Biden.
What kinds of congressional candidates are good at getting independents and democrats to vote for them? Candidates like David Valdao, Brian Fitzpatrick, Maria Salazar, Michelle Steele Young Kim, and John Katko are all perfect examples of Republicans who have significant crossover appeal. In the case of John Katko and Brian Fitzpatrick, Trump lost their districts by 9% and 6% yet both candidates won their districts by 10% and 13% which were swings of 19%. What’s significant about all of these candidates? They’re either moderate or non-Trumpy or both. They also all represent mostly suburban districts. Another example of this kind of ticket splitting is Dan Crenshaw. Trump only won that Houston suburban district by about 2% while Crenshaw won it by about 13%. Most of these competitive districts are suburban districts, so it is imperative that Republicans run candidates who fit those districts. This means running candidates that look a lot more like Ben Sasse and a lot less like Trump. Yes, these candidates can have most of the same policy positions as Trump, but they have to be able to differentiate themselves enough to where he is not an albatross around their necks. Talking about stolen elections and defending January 6th and engaging in nonsensical conspiracy theories about vaccines and Q anon is only going to hurt the Republican Party in its efforts to win elections. And yes, while some of you may wholeheartedly believe the election was stolen or that Q anon is legitimate or that vaccines kill you, it does you no good to nominate people who reflect those views in competitive districts because they will lose and Biden will still have control of government. It makes absolutely no sense to take the ultimatum of I either want my conspiracy theory stolen election Trump worshipping representative or I want Democrats to hold all the levers of power. This is truly asinine thinking and people like Lin Wood who told Republicans not to vote for Loeffler and Purdue because they weren’t sufficiently conspiratorial are some of the stupidest people alive.
Republican voters have to live in political reality and the reality is that the majority of Americans are moderate and not conspiratorial. This is a center-right country compared to most of Europe, but on a left-right spectrum from the American perspective, it is very much a centrist country. And what does a centrist voter look like? Well, let’s consult the polling. Most Americans want the government to perform basic functions like build roads and bridges, but they also want the government to operate as a bit of a safety net for people in need. However, they do not want massive government intervention in the economy. On a line by line basis, Americans are fine with government economic intervention until they find out it will mean their taxes go up. For example, in 2018 Florida and Texas voters shot down an attempt to institute a state income with 65%+ of the vote in both states. Americans are also typically fine with immigration, but they are not in favor of open borders. The median American voter does not have a problem with immigration from a racial basis, but rather they are averse to people coming here and then jumping on welfare programs. On racial and social issues, Americans want to address what they perceive as entrenched historical discrimination against minorities while also recoiling at the idea of teaching Critical Race Theory. The majority of Americans are in favor of gay marriage, and while I still am not, if I were in a swing district, I would vote for a Republican who was because that would be in line with the voter they needed to get in order to win. Most Americans are not in favor of men playing in women’s sports. Americans are in favor of a strong foreign policy, but with limits. They want to be the strongest on the world stage, but also do not like the idea of wars everywhere. However, the median voter does not want to look like a fool and pullout from places like Afghanistan in atrocious and embarrassing fashion like the Biden administration. Another thing a majority of Americans want is a government that seems competent and intent on problem solving as opposed to just bloviating and engaging in vitriolic attacks on fellow Americans. Republican voters and the Republican Party needs to elevate candidates who can take the middle road on these issues. A Republican who can advocate economic responsibility without necessarily being a full blown libertarian while being socially compassionate yet sane will have a very good chance at winning not only the competitive districts, but the democrat leaning districts as well. Trump seems insane to many voters, but so do Democrats. A Republican Party that nominates and support candidates who are more “moderate” than Trump, but aren’t insane like Democrats will assuredly win back the House and would give Republicans a good shot at taking back the Senate as well. Remember, we don’t need Republicans that agree with us on everything, rather, we need Republicans who can win and who vote for McConnell (and I suppose McCarthy, although I would really prefer a Dan Crenshaw type to be Speaker of the House) rather than Schumer and Pelosi. Remember, even a Republican who votes with Democrats 50% of the time is still better than a Democrat who votes with you 0% of the time. As Calvin Coolidge once said, “It is much more important to kill bad bills than to pass good ones.” We should all take this into account when we head to the polls this Summer and Fall.
Unless democrat politicians and other elites start changing their tune on COVID restrictions before November (which they probably will to save themselves), I predict that the swing to the right for the 2022 midterms will be enormous.