As you probably already know, (if you don’t know, then you were not paying attention to politics in 2020 or you still believe the election was stolen) Republicans lost the presidency, the Senate, but almost won back the House of Representatives. It was not a bloodbath for Republicans, but it wasn't a wonderland either. In 2021, the country stands with a 50-50 Senate with vice president Kamala Harris acting as the tie breaker, a 222-213 House, the Democrats controlling the presidency, and Republicans controlling a majority of governorships and state legislatures. The country is about as evenly divided as it can get politically. Thanks to senators Joe Manchin and Kirsten Sinema, outside of spending bills, the political scene in America will basically be partisan gridlock as both senators have stated they are against getting rid of the filibuster. What does this mean for 2022 and 2024? At some point the American people will vote to end the impasse on legislation, and it could come by 2022, 2024, or possibly later. Because of this, I have several possible scenarios of what could happen in 2022, 2024, and 2026. This will be a three part series in which each article focuses on a different year. For this article I will focus on 2022, the next will be 2024, and the last will be 2026.
An Early Look at 2022
There are five possible scenarios that can happen in 2022:
Republicans win big
Democrats win big
Republicans win narrowly
Democrats win narrowly
More Gridlock!
You would think these five scenarios would apply to all three election cycles, but that is just not the case. This election cycle is the most unknown because we are in uncharted political territory. A political party has not lost unified control of government in one presidential term since 1932, but the margin of victory has not been this tight for the party in control since 2000. The 2000 election was extremely close with Bush winning the presidency by the skin of his teeth, the Senate being split 50-50, and the House split 221-212 with two independents. Polling indicates Biden has on average anywhere between a 50-54% approval rating and about a 40% disapproval rating of which makes him fairly unpopular historically. What does this mean for 2022?
Democrats Win Narrowly
It could mean a number of things, but let’s look at the midterm of 2002, since that election cycle most closely resembles this one. In 2002 the President’s party picked up eight House seats, two senate seats, and lost a governorship. This was not a large win, but it defied typical midterm history where the incumbent party loses loses seats in down ballot races. The Republicans in 2002 benefited from Bush’s high approval rating, and the fact that Republicans were viewed as the hawkish party when it came to terrorism. This helped to blunt traditional midterm election losses. Early polling for 2022 looks like it will be close. Democrats hold a 5% lead in the generic ballot polling as well as holding small leads in a number of state races. However, Republicans also hold leads in a number of state races key state races, so this is very close. America is coming out of a pandemic and recession, so Biden may benefit in public opinion for passing a large stimulus bill and for being president when the pandemic ends. A pandemic is a little bit like a war, so there are some parallels between that and 2002. Given the early polling and similar circumstances, a small Democratic win in 2022 is a very possible scenario.
Republicans Win Narrowly
Another possible scenario is that Republicans eek out small victories due to normal historical trends. If you are a Republican, this is probably the outcome you hope for. Biden has a decent approval rating, and the country is slowly getting back to normal, so there isn't massive backlash against the incumbent president, but enough Republicans show up to the polls that it outnumbers democrats in enough swing states to give Republicans 2 seats in the Senate and 5-10 seats in the House. The polling in Georgia combined with the stricter voting laws in Georgia plus the fact that it is a midterm with a Democratic president means Republicans have a slight edge in the Georgia senate race. And governor Chris Sununu of New Hampshire is polling well against Democrat Maggie Hassan in a potential senate matchup. Republicans also control a number of state trifectas which means they are in control of a lot of redistricting efforts which should give them control of the House. Historically when the polling is close, the party that is out of power does better in the final results than the polling suggests, so if the polls are close in these battleground areas, expect Republicans to have the advantage.
Democrats Win Big
There is a scenario where Democrats win by a wide margin in 2022. Unlike 2002 Republicans have an ex-president who is still very popular within the party and plans to remain an important figure within it. As seen by the months after the 2020 election, Trump’s ardent supporters demand loyalty to Trump. It is also abundantly clear that a lot of Trump’s most ardent supporters do not show up to vote when Trump is not on the ballot. If the GOP is in the middle of a civil war during the midterms between mainstream Republicans and hardcore Trump supporters, Democrats could win a number of Senate and House races due to the fracturing within the GOP. There are currently four senate Republicans retiring in 2022, and the nomination of bad candidates combined with a fractured party could give Democrats the needed edge to gain seats in the House and pickup 3-5 seats in the Senate. That would be a nightmare scenario because now the senate is 53-55 in Dems favor, and they now get to eliminate the filibuster while trying to cram all kinds of left wing legislation down the country’s throat. This is a preventable outcome, but Republicans cannot be tearing each other apart amongst factions. Nominate candidates who can win instead of based purely on loyalty or ideological grounds and this scenario will not come to pass.
Republicans Win Big
It is also possible that Republicans win in large fashion. Republicans have 4-5 pickup options in the Senate depending on who runs and if the early polling trends in Republican favor, and Republicans are targeting 47 House seats that are within historical margins of picking up post presidential election. Republicans could find an issue to unify against Biden on, and with low turnout among Democrats, sweep their way into power with large margins in both houses of congress. Biden currently has a solid approval rating, but that could fall as his presidency continues if he were to advocate for extremely radical policies or if there were a recession. Congress has passed upwards of 5 trillion dollars just on pandemic relief alone, so there is bound to be inflation which will eventually lead to a recession. It is just a matter of when the recession occurs. The money printing that led to the Great Depression began in 1927 and culminated in the stock market crash in 1929, so it is very possible that there is a recession in 2022. If there is a recession in 2022, expect the public to turn on Biden and for Republicans to pick up every close senate seat and most of the 47 House districts the GOP is targeting. Republicans are polling fairly well in New Hampshire, Michigan, and Georgia, so it is possible Republicans can capitalize on a recession or maybe just general anti-Biden sentiment if the country gets tired of him.
More Gridlock!
The most likely scenario in 2022 is more gridlock. The country is muddling through the pandemic, and things are about to get back to normal. The polling indicates that Republicans are still willing to go to the polls for the most part even though Trump is not at the top of the ticket, Democrats do not have Donald Trump to run against anymore. Republicans have four senators if not more retiring in battleground states which will make winning those in 2022 more difficult, but with Biden’s approval rating not very high, there will not be a huge gap between independents who vote Republican and ones that vote Democrat, so Democrats likely do not run the table with those seats. Republicans are polling well in Georgia and New Hampshire as long as they run the right candidates, so Republicans may lose a net seat of one or two. But with the redistricting mainly benefitting Republicans, they can probably gerrymander the districts to where they gain the House back easily. And with Republicans being within a few percentage points in 30 House in 2020, they have a good chance if they are united enough against Biden to take 20 seats or more. This is the likely scenario and it prevents Democrats from destroying the filibuster because if the Democrats were to eliminate the filibuster in 2023 with the possibility of Republicans taking unified control of government in 2024, Democrats would be wasting the elimination of the filibuster since Republicans control the House. This scenario is the most mathematically likely and it displays the partisan divide incredibly well. Democrats would have a razor thin majority in the Senate but Republicans would have a nice majority in the House. We got gridlock in 2020, and the sentiment of the country seems to want more slow movements on policy, so gridlock could be imminent again in 2022.